Menu

  • Home
  • About
  • Search
  • Featured Shows
  • Saved Episodes
Spokely

© 2026 Spokely

RenMac

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Business

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer.......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

Episodes

RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk*

RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk*

Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why reestablishing control is critical to global energy markets and U.S. strategic credibility. The team breaks down how geopolitical decisions are increasingly driving market outcomes, why oil shocks constrain the Fed’s ability to ease, and how inflation dynamics are taking precedence over growth. They also explore cracks forming in credit and private markets, resilience in U.S. assets versus global stress, and how positioning, sentiment, and gamma dynamics could amplify volatility as markets navigate a fragile late-cycle environment.
49min•Mar 27, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s)

RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s)

RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The team unpacks an oil-driven supply shock colliding with sticky inflation and softening growth, why central banks don’t look through energy shocks, and the cracks forming in credit and leveraged financials.
41min•Mar 20, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells

RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells

Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to 20% of global oil supply and push oil to $200. The team breaks down why markets may be underpricing the duration of the conflict, how refinery shortages in Asia could ripple through global energy markets, and why Russia may ultimately benefit from the crisis. They also discuss the limits of SPR releases and U.S. shale responses, cracks forming beneath the surface in equities, why gold and defensive sectors aren’t behaving like a typical risk-off environment, and how geopolitics could collide with Fed policy, inflation data, and consumer spending in the weeks ahead.
1h 4min•Mar 12, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening

RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening

RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. The team discusses the “Hamilton Trigger” for energy, February’s weak jobs report, why the Fed may struggle to cut rates amid supply shocks, and how inflation pressures are shifting the RenMac Market Cycle Clock. The team also explore cracks forming in credit, the vulnerability of crowded momentum trades in tech, housing gridlock as mortgage rates rise, and the political backdrop heading into the midterms.
38min•Mar 6, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?

RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?

RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme tech momentum reminiscent of 2000, and cracks forming beneath the surface in software and breadth. They also cover late-cycle sector rotation into energy and defensives, housing and AI power politics in Washington, and what next week’s ISM, jobs, and retail sales could mean for growth expectations and market leadership.
44min•Feb 27, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns

RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns

RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between cyclicals and defensives. The team discusses why GDP and inflation prints are being distorted by the shutdown, why slowing wage growth could become the real 2026 risk, and what Trump’s State of the Union, tariffs, and Iran could mean for energy markets. They also tackle whether high yield credit is the canary in the coal mine—and why private equity and private credit may be the bigger vulnerability.
42min•Feb 20, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation

RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation

RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions beneath the surface. The team debates the growing AI vs. non-AI market bifurcation, fragile tech momentum, tight credit spreads versus private credit stress, tariff maneuvering around chips and Taiwan, and what housing, manufacturing, and D.C. drama signal for markets ahead.
32min•Feb 13, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum

RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum

CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and pressuring software stocks. The team breaks down softening labor signals beneath solid GDP growth, Bitcoin’s risk warning, FX stress abroad, the views of the Davos elite and what a potential Kevin Warsh Fed chair could mean for markets.
56min•Feb 6, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands

RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands

RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and crypto and why sentiment extremes and “hair-trigger” psychology make these trades vulnerable to sharp reversals. The team also breaks down “momentum tech” and sector rotation risks, rising trade and shutdown risks, China-Taiwan tensions and why February seasonality could amplify market crosscurrents.
49min•Jan 30, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions

RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions

RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, and how improving breadth, regional banks, and small caps point to healthier market internals. The team also breaks down Davos takeaways on trade, rare earths, and China strategy, why good news for the economy doesn’t always translate into good news for the markets, and what to watch next as yields, seasonality, and leadership trends evolve.
42min•Jan 23, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge

RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge

RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor. Dutta argues inflation pressures continue to ease and deGraaf explains why that cooling inflation, improving breadth, and early strength in consumer discretionary point to a more constructive equity backdrop. Pavlick outlines why affordability is shaping energy, housing, and trade policy in a midterm year, while geopolitical tensions around China, Taiwan, and Venezuela remain underpriced. And the team dives into the Fed chair sweepstakes, debating Powell’s staying power, the risks of politicized dissents, and what true Fed independence means for markets in 2026.
51min•Jan 16, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump

RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump

RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines, while deGraaf points to an updated Market Cycle Clock, falling yields and trend signals that still support equities. Pavlick outlines growing policy uncertainty around tariffs, housing affordability, and Venezuela, and the team explores why markets continue to shrug off geopolitical risk, how healthcare and biotech are emerging as contrarian opportunities, and what investors should watch for as earnings season and inflation data take center stage. Our Outlook call is now available. Watch it here:https://start.renmac.com/2026outlook_lp
49min•Jan 9, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes

RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment data kick off the year. Dutta argues inflation pressures are easing faster than expected across housing, labor, and energy. deGraaf highlights emerging cyclicality beneath soft year-end trading, cautioning that extended moves in commodities and precious metals are entering bubble territory. And Pavlick outlines why tariff relief is increasingly consumer-focused, how Taiwan and China remain a central geopolitical risk, and why midterm dynamics will shape policy more than campaign rhetoric.
34min•Jan 2, 2026
RenMac Off-Script: Ronaldo, Trade, Inflation & What Investors Missed in ’25. + What’s on Tap For ‘26

RenMac Off-Script: Ronaldo, Trade, Inflation & What Investors Missed in ’25. + What’s on Tap For ‘26

RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf explains why seasonality and easing inflation remain underappreciated tailwinds, Dutta highlights the growing disconnect between strong GDP prints and weakening income and warns that unemployment — not growth — will drive the next phase of the cycle. And Pavlick breaks down why internal Republican divisions and the unresolved Fed chair search matter heading into midterms. The team also discusses consumer confidence, gold and metals strength, and late-year market positioning.
39min•Dec 26, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflation, deGraaf explains why the latter contracting is historically a quantifiable tailwind for equities and Pavlick examines China tensions from Panama to Taiwan and the continued political risks surrounding tariffs, defense spending, and Fed leadership.
48min•Dec 19, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly*

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly*

RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and what the Chair succession battle means for policy credibility. deGraaf highlights improving market breadth and surprising strength across banks, metals, and equal-weight indices, while Dutta outlines a deteriorating labor market beneath the surface. And Pavlick breaks down Venezuela strategy, ACA deadlines, defense legislation, and a new outbound investment screen targeting China.
54min•Dec 12, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters

RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters

RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weakness in data-center stocks and fading construction momentum as utility costs climb. Also on tap: market leadership rotation, tariff strategy, Japan’s investment commitments and ACA politics. Here, we also welcome you to sign up for our RenMac’s weeklymacro newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletter.
44min•Dec 5, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair

RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair

RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed appointments, and ACA subsidies will shape 2026 policy risk. Just in time for the Holiday's, RenMac unveils its swag store, supporting a great cause - check it out at www.renmacmerch.com
42min•Nov 28, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights

RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights

RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain as Washington heads into Thanksgiving.
39min•Nov 21, 2025
RenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) Tensions

RenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) Tensions

RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.
40min•Nov 14, 2025